Opta’s supercomputer puts Spain on top of the 2026 World Cup title odds (17%), ahead of France (14.1%) and England (11.8%). Here’s the full breakdown, tiers, and one surprising stat.
Brief context
The World Cup 2026 draw has given fans a clearer sense of the bracket landscape, and Opta has followed with a probability-based forecast of who is most likely to lift the trophy. This Worldcup 2026 prediction is best read as a tier list powered by simulations, not as a promise.
Quick takeaway for US readers: the top number is still a long shot. Spain can be the favorite and still be more likely to not win than to win. That’s the point of using probabilities instead of hot takes.
Key takeaways (fast scan)
• Spain lead the title odds and sit in a clear top tier
• France and England are the closest challengers
• The next tier is packed, and bracket path can flip outcomes fast
• A small but interesting playoff pool stat hints at hidden upside
About the Opta supercomputer methodology
Opta Analyst states Spain win 17% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-draw simulations, which indicates this Worldcup 2026 prediction is coming from repeated full-tournament simulation rather than a single “ranking.”
A practical way to explain what this means for a US reader: the model is repeatedly playing out the entire competition and tracking who lifts the trophy most often, then publishing the results as probabilities.
Top 10 favorites: win probability rankings (Opta pre-draw)
| Rank | Country | Win probability |
| 1 | Spain | 17.0% |
| Unbeaten in 31 consecutive competitive matches; scored 15 goals at Euro 2024 (most in tournament) | ||
| 2 | France | 14.1% |
| Reached 4 World Cup finals since 1998; Mbappé has 12 World Cup goals in just 2 tournaments | ||
| 3 | England | 11.8% |
| Won all 8 World Cup qualifiers with 8 clean sheets; only 2nd team ever to achieve this feat | ||
| 4 | Argentina | 8.7% |
| Messi leads all players with 26 World Cup appearances and 13 goals; defending champions | ||
| 5 | Germany | 7.1% |
| 6 | Portugal | 6.6% |
| 7 | Brazil | 5.6% |
| 8 | Netherlands | 5.2% |
| 9 | Norway | 2.3% |
| Haaland scored 16 goals in qualifying, matching Lewandowski’s record for most prolific UEFA campaign | ||
| 10 | Colombia | 2.0% |
Top pick teams
This is the core of the Worldcup 2026 prediction story: Spain lead the pack, France are right behind, and England are the only other team above the one-in-10 line.
Spain (17.0%)
Spain sit No. 1 in Opta’s Worldcup 2026 prediction at 17.0%.
Opta’s write-up highlights Spain’s recent tournament performance and output, including Euro 2024 scoring volume (15 goals) and their ability to win tight games, with only one match requiring extra time on the way.
My view: models love teams that can win multiple game types. Spain aren’t priced as favorites because they look pretty. They’re priced as favorites because they have repeatable control plus enough finishing to turn control into wins.
France (14.1%)
France rank second in the Worldcup 2026 prediction at 14.1%.
Opta also frames this tournament as the end of an era under Didier Deschamps, which matters because stability and tournament experience are often linked to deep runs.
In practical terms, France’s probability reflects depth and the ability to win even when the performance isn’t perfect, which is often the difference between a semifinalist and a champion.
England (11.8%)
England are third at 11.8% in the Worldcup 2026 prediction.
Opta notes England’s long title drought and positions them as the only other team above the 10% threshold, entering this cycle as a top-tier contender.
My take: England’s “talent” is never the debate in the US sports sense. The debate is whether they can close the last two or three games when pressure spikes and margins shrink.
Argentina (8.7%)
Argentina sit at 8.7%.
Opta’s discussion acknowledges the obvious: any team with Messi has a chance, while also pointing to contextual factors like squad change (including Di María’s international retirement) and variability in opponent mix.
For fans reading a Worldcup 2026 prediction, Argentina’s number is still strong. It’s not a downgrade to “outsider.” It’s a reminder that repeating as champion is hard even for great teams.
Next tier teams
This tier is where most bracket chaos lives. The Worldcup 2026 prediction probabilities are close enough that one favorable matchup chain can flip a quarterfinal team into a finalist.
Next tier contenders table
| Team | Title probability | What it suggests in plain English |
| Germany | 7.1% | Legit upside, but not fully “back” as a consistent tournament force |
| Scored 37 goals in World Cup qualifying (2nd most); seeking record-equalling 5th World Cup title | ||
| Portugal | 6.6% | Deep-run potential if balance clicks around elite talent |
| Cristiano Ronaldo to appear at record 6th World Cup; scored in 5 previous editions | ||
| Brazil | 5.6% | Big ceiling, but recent signals keep them below the top tier |
| Only nation to qualify for every World Cup; last won title 24 years ago (2002) | ||
| Netherlands | 5.2% | Consistent contender profile, just under the “true favorite” line |
| Reached 3 World Cup finals without winning; Memphis Depay is all-time leading scorer (51 goals) | ||
Germany (7.1%)
Opta places Germany fifth overall and notes both the upside and the reality that their last true World Cup peak is now years back, with recent tournament runs not matching historic standards.
My view: Germany are the classic “structure can win tournaments” team. If their lineup choices settle and their finishing variance swings positive, a 7.1% number can look conservative by the quarterfinals.
Portugal (6.6%)
Opta assigns Portugal a 6.6% chance and emphasizes the ongoing narrative weight around Cristiano Ronaldo, alongside the underlying strength of the wider squad.
From a Worldcup 2026 prediction perspective, Portugal feel like a team whose probability jumps fast if they hit a rhythm early, because confidence and chemistry matter more in knockouts than in league seasons.
Brazil (5.6%)
Opta puts Brazil at 5.6% and discusses their recent qualification context plus the reality that history doesn’t score goals in 2026.
My take: Brazil are the team casual US readers will assume is top three. The model is basically saying “prove it in current form.” That gap between reputation and probability is exactly where sports arguments start.
Netherlands (5.2%)
At 5.2%, the Netherlands close the “above 5%” group.
In a Worldcup 2026 prediction model, this often signals a team that can reach the last four frequently, but needs a little extra finishing luck (or a dream matchup chain) to convert that into championships.
Outsiders
This is where a Worldcup 2026 prediction becomes useful for fans who want to spot potential upset teams before the tournament hype machine tells them.
Norway (2.3%)
Opta gives Norway 2.3% and notes they stormed qualifiers with a perfect eight wins and 37 goals, with Haaland scoring 16.
That is exactly the “puncher’s chance” profile: elite finishing plus momentum, which can ruin a favorite in one knockout game.
Colombia (2.0%)
Colombia come in at 2.0%, with Opta pointing to their Copa América run and attacking output, plus James Rodríguez’s chance creation and assist totals in that tournament.
My view: Colombia are the kind of team you do not want in a Round of 32 format, because one dominant 20-minute stretch can decide everything.
Host nations note (USA, Mexico, Canada)
Opta’s projections include host nations deeper down the list, with the USA at 0.9%, Mexico at 1.3%, and Canada at 0.4%.
For US readers, the important takeaway is not “title or bust.” It’s that a home tournament plus a favorable draw can still create a very real knockout run, which is a different kind of success story.
If you’re optimizing this page for US search behavior, it helps to repeat a clear statement: this Worldcup 2026 prediction is about title probability, not about who “looks best on paper.”
Fun stat
Here’s the most underrated line in Opta’s Worldcup 2026 prediction package: the teams still to be decided via the March play-offs have a combined 3.7% chance to win the tournament, with Italy called out as the most likely candidate if they qualify.
That number is small, but it’s not nothing, and it’s a great reminder that qualification route does not always reflect true team strength.
My personal view: the smartest way to use a Worldcup 2026 prediction like this is to keep updating your tiers as new information lands. Injuries, manager shifts, and bracket paths can change the odds fast, but tiers tend to stay stable longer than any single percentage.
World Cup 2026 Prediction FAQ: Opta Supercomputer Odds Explained
Spain is the favorite with a 17% win probability, followed by France (14.1%) and England (11.8%). Spain’s status is based on their unbeaten 31-game competitive streak, Euro 2024 championship, and squad depth under Luis de la Fuente.
Argentina has an 8.7% probability. They would be the first team since Brazil (1962) to successfully defend the title. Lionel Messi leads all players with 26 World Cup appearances and 21 goal involvements.
The supercomputer runs 10,000 full-tournament simulations using team ratings, recent form, squad depth, and historical performance data. Win probabilities represent how often each team lifts the trophy across all simulations.
The tournament runs June 11–July 19, 2026, across 16 venues in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It’s the first 48-team World Cup with 104 matches. The final will be held at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Brazil’s 5.6% probability reflects their recent struggles, including finishing fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying and inconsistent results under Carlo Ancelotti. It will be 24 years since their last World Cup title (2002).
Katie Dawson is a football news writer at Poly Insights, covering global competitions through a data-first and context-driven lens. Her work focuses on translating match events, form trends, and underlying performance indicators into clear, reader-friendly analysis. With a strong emphasis on accuracy and clarity, Katie helps fans understand how numbers, tactics, and momentum shape results – before and after kickoff.
