The Thesis
Manchester City are beatable. Not just on paper, but in ways that Fulham are uniquely equipped to exploit on Tuesday night at Craven Cottage.
The champions travel to West London without Rodri, the heartbeat of everything Pep Guardiola builds. And the numbers do not lie: City are a different, weaker, more fragile animal without the Spanish midfielder anchoring their system. Fulham, riding a two-match winning streak and unbeaten in four at home, have never had a better opportunity to end their 18-game losing run against City.
This is not wishful thinking. This is tactical reality.
The Evidence: City’s Rodri Problem
Since joining Manchester City in 2019, Rodri has appeared in 260 matches across all competitions. City have won 74% of those games. Without him? That figure plummets to 59%.
In the Premier League specifically, the drop is even more alarming. City have lost a third of their league matches without Rodri since his debut. Seven defeats in 21 games. For context, City lost just five Premier League matches all of last season with Rodri in the side.
Here is the key stat that should have Marco Silva circling this fixture:
| Scenario | Win Rate | Loss Rate |
| With Rodri | 74.1% | 10.9% |
| Without Rodri | 59% | 33% |
That 33% loss rate is not a small sample anomaly. It is a structural weakness. Without Rodri screening the defence, intercepting passes, and recycling possession under pressure, City’s midfield becomes a highway for counter-attacks.
The Counter-Attack Vulnerability
Jamie Carragher said it plainly earlier this season: “The only way you can really hurt Manchester City is set pieces and on the counter-attack.”
The data supports this. According to Opta, City have conceded 34 shots from fast breaks this season, more than any top-six club. Only Southampton, West Ham, and Brentford have allowed more.
This is new. Last season, City did not concede a single Premier League goal on the counter-attack. Not one. Now, without Rodri’s positional discipline and tactical fouling to break up transitions, opponents are finding space behind the high line with alarming regularity.
City’s away form reflects this fragility. They have won just two of six Premier League road games this season (2W-1D-3L). At the Etihad, they are nearly untouchable. Away from home, they are mortal.
The Blueprint: How Fulham Can Win
Marco Silva does not need to reinvent the wheel. He needs to execute what his team already does well.
1. Sit Deep, Stay Compact
Fulham are not a high-pressing team. Silva’s system prioritises a compact mid-block that forces opponents wide and invites them onto the ball in non-dangerous areas. Against City, this is not cowardice. It is common sense.
Let City have their 65% possession. Let them pass sideways between Dias and Gvardiol. The moment they commit numbers forward, the trap springs.
2. Transition Fast Through Iwobi and Wilson
Alex Iwobi and Harry Wilson are the key figures here. Both are quick, direct, and comfortable carrying the ball at speed into vacated space. Without Rodri sitting in front of the defence, City’s centre-backs will be exposed to one-on-one situations they rarely faced last season.
The template already exists. Earlier this season, Fulham created 2.60 xG against City at the Etihad, the third-highest figure by an away team at that stadium since Guardiola arrived. Adama Traore nutmegged Mateo Kovacic in his own half and beat Kyle Walker for pace to go clean through.
That was not luck. That was a system finding cracks.
3. Target Set Pieces
City have conceded three goals from corners in their last five matches. Fulham score 25% of their goals from set pieces. Joachim Andersen and Calvin Bassey are genuine aerial threats, and City’s zonal marking has looked suspect when tested.
Sasa Lukic leads the Premier League in fouls won (29). Every time he draws contact in a dangerous area, Fulham have a delivery into the box. City’s vulnerability in these moments is not theoretical. It is documented.
4. Make Bernd Leno the Hero
This is the uncomfortable truth for Fulham fans: Leno has never beaten Manchester City. His personal record is 0-12 with 34 goals conceded. But streaks end. And Leno, when called upon, remains one of the better shot-stoppers in the league.
If Fulham can limit City to low-percentage chances from distance and set themselves to absorb pressure, Leno can be the difference. He has done it against other top-six sides. He can do it here.
The Counterpoint: Why City Might Still Win
Let us be honest. This is still Manchester City.
Erling Haaland has six goals in six career games against Fulham, including a hat-trick in 37 minutes at the Etihad in 2023. He is one goal away from becoming the fastest player to 100 Premier League goals. If there is a player capable of single-handedly destroying any tactical blueprint, it is the Norwegian.
Phil Foden is in excellent form. Jeremy Doku’s pace on the flank will test Kenny Tete relentlessly. And Guardiola, for all his team’s struggles, has never lost to Fulham. His record against the Cottagers is immaculate: 18 wins from 18.
City also have the quality to simply overwhelm opponents through possession. Even without Rodri, they remain the best team in England at controlling the ball and creating half-chances. If Fulham cannot stay disciplined for 90 minutes, City will punish them.
The Verdict
The conditions for an upset have rarely been better.
City are without their most important player. Their away form is average at best. They are conceding counter-attacks at a rate unseen in the Guardiola era. And Fulham, under Silva, have built exactly the kind of team that can exploit these weaknesses: compact, disciplined, dangerous on the break, and lethal from set pieces.
Will it happen? The bookmakers say no. City are 64% favourites. History says no. Fulham have not beaten them since 2009.
But football does not care about history. It cares about moments. And on Tuesday night, at a raucous Craven Cottage, Fulham will have their moment.
Whether they take it is another question entirely.
Key Numbers to Watch
| Stat | Figure |
| City’s win rate without Rodri | 59% (vs 74% with) |
| City’s away record 2025/26 | 2W-1D-3L |
| Fulham’s home record 2025/26 | 5W-1D-1L |
| City shots conceded from fast breaks | 34 (4th most in PL) |
| Fulham goals from set pieces | 25% |
| Haaland vs Fulham | 6 goals in 6 games |
| Leno vs City | 0-12 (34 conceded) |
Match Details:
Fulham vs Manchester City
Tuesday, December 2, 2025 | 7:30 PM GMT
Craven Cottage, London
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League (UK) | NBC Sports (USA) | DAZN (Canada)
Do you think Fulham can end their 18-game losing streak against City? Or will Haaland add to his collection against the Cottagers? Have your say in the comments below.
