A closer look at Monterrey’s semifinal win reveals why Rayados shouldn’t celebrate just yet, and what must change in the second leg.
Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX Apertura 2025 – Semifinal, 1st Leg | December 3, 2025
A Win That Raises More Questions Than Answers
On paper, Monterrey got exactly what they wanted: a home win, a clean sheet, and Germán Berterame continuing his remarkable run of clutch goals. The Estadio BBVA faithful went home happy. Toluca left empty-handed.
And yet, something about this result doesn’t sit right. Watch the game again, not as a fan, but as an analyst, and you’ll notice patterns that should keep Domènec Torrent awake at night. Because while Monterrey won the scoreboard battle, the tactical story tells a different tale.
The Ghost of Alexis Vega
Here’s an uncomfortable truth Rayados fans might not want to hear: they didn’t face the real Toluca on Wednesday night.
Alexis Vega, the creative heartbeat of Los Diablos Rojos, watched from the stands nursing an injury. His absence rippled through everything Toluca tried to do. Without Vega dropping between the lines, finding pockets of space, and turning defense into attack with a single pass, Toluca became predictable. Crosses from wide. Paulinho as the target man. Hope for the best.
Sergio Ramos had a comfortable evening. No explosive 1v1 duels. No runs in behind to chase. Just aerial balls to deal with, bread and butter for a defender of his experience. If Vega returns for Saturday’s second leg, even at half-fitness, the complexion of this tie changes entirely.
Surviving vs. Controlling
Monterrey scored in the 39th minute. What happened in the remaining 51 minutes? Not much attacking football, that’s for sure.
Rayados retreated into a low block, inviting Toluca onto them, gambling that their defensive resolve would hold. And it did, barely. Luis Cárdenas produced a stunning save to deny Castro in the 57th minute. Gallardo’s effort flew inches wide. Paulinho had half-chances that, on another night, nestle in the corner.
This wasn’t controlled defending. This was survival. Bodies on the line, last-ditch blocks, a goalkeeper in inspired form. At sea level, in front of a roaring home crowd, that kind of rearguard action can work. But can they do this for 90 minutes at 2,667 meters altitude, where every sprint feels like running through sand?
One Moment of Magic, But Is There Another?
The winning goal was beautiful. Tecatito Corona at his shimmering best: quick feet to create separation, a burst of acceleration, a cross delivered with the precision of a surgeon. Berterame’s movement and timing did the rest.
But here’s what concerns me: that was Monterrey’s only real attacking moment of quality. One flash of brilliance in 90 minutes. Corona has been maddeningly inconsistent this season, moments of genius scattered between long stretches of anonymity. Canales controlled tempo well but rarely threatened.
Going to Toluca needing to score, Rayados cannot rely on another isolated moment of individual brilliance. They need a plan to create chances against a team that will be fired up, backed by a hostile crowd, and desperate to overturn the deficit.
The Mountain Awaits
Estadio Nemesio Diez isn’t just another away ground. It sits 2,667 meters above sea level, higher than any major stadium in Europe, higher than anywhere Sergio Ramos has ever played competitive football.
The thin air does strange things. The ball moves differently. Legs that feel fresh in the 60th minute turn to concrete by the 75th. Teams that travel to Toluca needing a result often find themselves gasping for air in the final 20 minutes, watching helplessly as Los Diablos Rojos turn the screw.
Monterrey’s situation is precarious. A 0-0 draw eliminates them, Toluca advance on superior league position. A 1-0 Toluca win does the same. Rayados cannot simply defend and hope. They must score, which means they must attack, which means they must leave spaces that Toluca will exploit.
The Road Ahead
None of this is to say Monterrey can’t finish the job. Berterame is in the form of his life. Ramos has the experience to handle pressure moments. The clean sheet, against Liga MX’s most potent attack, proves Rayados can execute a defensive game plan.
But Saturday will demand more. More attacking intent. More control in midfield. More composure when the altitude starts to bite and the crowd roars for blood.
Monterrey won the first battle. The war is far from over, and the hardest fighting lies ahead.
Second Leg: Saturday, December 6 | Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca | Monterrey lead 1-0 on aggregate
