Premier League Matchweek 18 | Friday, December 26, 2025 | 20:00 UTC | Old Trafford, Manchester
This Man United vs Newcastle prediction backs the hosts to snap their poor run against the Magpies on Boxing Day. Both sides sit level on 26 points, with United in 7th and Newcastle in 11th after inconsistent campaigns. The Red Devils desperately need a home victory to revive their top-six hopes, while the visitors aim to extend their recent dominance in this fixture.
Context and Stakes
Ruben Amorim’s side arrive bruised after a 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa, extending their winless run to three league matches. United have claimed just two victories in their last eight Premier League games, with both coming away from Old Trafford. Newcastle enter in similarly patchy form, having failed to win three of their last four league fixtures after squandering a two-goal lead against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw.
Man United vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Recent history heavily favors the Magpies. Newcastle have won five of the last six meetings across all competitions, including a 4-1 thrashing at St James’ Park in April and a 2-0 victory at Old Trafford last December. United’s solitary win in that spell was a 3-2 home success in May 2024. However, the Red Devils boast a strong long-term home record, losing just twice in their last 40 league games against Newcastle at Old Trafford.
United’s Home Form Under Pressure
In their last six overall matches, United have won twice, drawn twice, and lost twice. At Old Trafford in their last three league games, they have drawn twice and lost once. A chaotic 4-4 draw with Bournemouth highlighted their attacking quality but also their defensive frailties. United average 1.82 goals per game this season but concede 1.65, making them vulnerable in open contests.
Newcastle’s Away Struggles
Eddie Howe’s men have won just one of eight Premier League away games this season. In their last six overall, Newcastle have two wins, three draws, and one defeat. They score 1.35 goals per game but have dropped 13 points from winning positions this campaign. That tendency to surrender leads remains their biggest weakness heading into this fixture.
Tactical Outlook
Both teams face significant selection headaches. United’s midfield creativity will be tested without their talisman, while Newcastle’s defensive options are severely depleted. The match shapes up as an open contest where both attacks should find opportunities. United’s high-scoring, high-conceding profile combined with Newcastle’s away vulnerabilities could produce an entertaining affair.
Team News
Man United: Bruno Fernandes (soft tissue) and Kobbie Mainoo (calf) are ruled out. Matthijs de Ligt (back) remains unavailable. Amad Diallo, Bryan Mbeumo, and Noussair Mazraoui are at AFCON. Casemiro returns from suspension.
Newcastle: Kieran Trippier (hamstring), Tino Livramento (knee), Sven Botman (hamstring), Dan Burn (ribs), and Emil Krafth (knee) are all sidelined. Nick Pope faces a late fitness test. Lewis Hall could return.
Numbers to Watch
- Newcastle have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these sides
- Both teams scored in 9 of United’s last 10 matches
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of United’s last 10 games
- United have lost just 2 of 40 home league games vs Newcastle historically
Man United vs Newcastle Prediction
The probability models give United a 52% chance of victory, with Newcastle at 26% and the draw at 22%. Goal distribution shows a 43% likelihood of 2-3 total goals, while 41% points toward three or more. Despite United’s crisis of confidence and missing their captain, home advantage and Newcastle’s dismal away record provide grounds for optimism. A 2-1 home win represents the most probable outcome, though expect both teams to find the net in what should be an open Boxing Day battle.
For a deeper breakdown of odds movement, model comparisons, and live updates once lineups are confirmed, visit: https://polyinsights.info/
Where to Watch
The match broadcasts live on Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League, and Sky Sports Ultra HDR in the UK. US viewers can watch on NBC at 15:00 ET.
