This Liverpool vs Wolves prediction examines one of the Premier League’s most lopsided Boxing Day fixtures as Arne Slot’s defending champions welcome the division’s bottom club to Anfield on 27 December. The Reds enter on a six-match unbeaten run while Wolves arrive with just two points from 17 games, making this a clash between sides heading in starkly opposite directions.
Match Context
Liverpool sit fifth with 29 points, within touching distance of the Champions League places after recovering from a difficult spell earlier this season. Their 2-1 victory over Tottenham last time out extended their unbeaten streak, though it came at significant cost with Alexander Isak suffering a fibula fracture that will sideline him for months.
Wolves’ campaign has been nothing short of catastrophic. Rob Edwards’ side remain rooted to the bottom with just two points—level with Newport County in 1970-71 for the fewest ever at this stage of an English league season. Their goal difference of -28 tells the story: nine scored, 37 conceded, both the worst figures in the division.
Liverpool vs Wolves Prediction: Head-to-Head Record
The historical advantage overwhelmingly favours the hosts. Liverpool have won 20 of 27 meetings between these sides, including 14 of the last 18 encounters. At Anfield, Wolves have rarely troubled the Reds—Liverpool have lost just once in 32 home matches played between Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve, that solitary defeat coming against Wolves in December 2010 under Mick McCarthy.
The Reds’ festive form is particularly imposing: 17 wins from 20 Premier League fixtures in the Christmas-to-New Year period, including five consecutive victories. This historical dominance, combined with Wolves’ current crisis, shapes the Liverpool vs Wolves prediction significantly.
Form Analysis
Liverpool’s recent run shows three wins and two draws from five matches. Victories over Inter Milan, Brighton (2-0), and Tottenham (2-1) have been punctuated by battling draws against Sunderland and Leeds. Hugo Ekitike has emerged as the attacking focal point with five goals in his last three appearances, stepping up admirably amid the injury crisis.
Wolves arrive on a 10-match losing streak following their 2-0 home defeat to Brentford. Their attacking output of 0.53 goals per game is the division’s worst, while their defence concedes at 2.18 per match. The absence of any attacking threat compounds their defensive vulnerabilities.
Team News: Liverpool vs Wolves Prediction Impact
Liverpool face a depleted squad for this fixture. Mohamed Salah has departed for the Africa Cup of Nations with Egypt, while Isak’s surgery rules him out until at least March. Dominik Szoboszlai serves a suspension after collecting his fifth yellow card. Wataru Endo (ankle) remains sidelined until January, while Cody Gakpo may return from a muscle problem. Conor Bradley is rated 50-50 after limping off against Spurs.
Wolves have their own concerns. Emmanuel Agbadou and Tawanda Chirewa have left for AFCON, joining a lengthy casualty list that includes Yerson Mosquera (ACL), Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (hamstring), Marshall Munetsi (calf), Rodrigo Gomes (groin), and Toti Gomes (thigh). Hugo Bueno (back) should return after training this week.
Tactical Outlook
Liverpool’s high-possession, high-pressing approach under Slot sees them average nearly 61% possession with 86% pass accuracy. With Salah absent, expect Ekitike, Federico Chiesa, and the returning Gakpo (if fit) to lead the attacking line.
Wolves will likely sit deep and attempt to frustrate, though their defensive record suggests this approach has failed consistently. Their expected goals against (xGA) metrics confirm a side struggling to limit quality chances.
Liverpool vs Wolves Prediction and Verdict
The Polyinsight Model forecasts a 3-0 Liverpool victory, assigning the Reds an 81% win probability against just 6% for Wolves and 13% for the draw. Goal probability distribution shows a 47% chance of three or more goals, with the 2-3 goals bracket at 40%.
Despite missing Salah and Isak, Liverpool possess enough firepower through Ekitike and the returning Gakpo to overwhelm the league’s weakest defence. Wolves’ inability to score—just nine goals all season—suggests they’ll struggle to breach a Liverpool backline that has improved in recent weeks.
Anfield’s festive atmosphere, Liverpool’s exceptional Christmas record, and Wolves’ historic struggles all point toward a comfortable home victory. The only question is the margin.
For deeper analysis of odds movement, model comparisons, and live updates once lineups are confirmed, visit: https://polyinsights.info/
Final Score Prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Wolves
