Premier League Matchweek 18 | Saturday, December 27, 2025 | 12:30 UTC | City Ground, Nottingham
This Forest vs Man City prediction backs the visitors to continue their dominant run with a comfortable away victory. Pep Guardiola’s title challengers sit second on 37 points, just two behind leaders Arsenal, while Sean Dyche’s side occupy 17th with 18 points. The champions arrive on a seven-game winning streak across all competitions, making them overwhelming favorites for this post-Christmas clash.
Context and Stakes
Manchester City enter this fixture in sensational form. A 3-0 home win over West Ham extended their winning run, with Erling Haaland netting twice to take his tally to a league-leading 19 goals in 17 games. City have scored 41 goals this campaign at 2.41 per match, making them the Premier League’s most prolific attack. Their record against sides 15th or below this season reads five wins from five, scoring three in each.
Forest, meanwhile, are battling relegation fears despite improvement under Dyche. A defeat to Fulham on Monday left them five points above the drop zone. The Reds have managed just five wins from 17 matches, and their attack has underperformed significantly, scoring only 17 goals from an expected goals figure of 20.89.
Forest vs Man City Head-to-Head
Recent history heavily favors the visitors. City have won five of the last seven meetings, outscoring Forest 16-2 in that stretch. Their sole defeat came at the City Ground in March 2025 when Callum Hudson-Odoi secured a 1-0 win. However, City responded with a 2-0 victory in April’s FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. Dyche’s personal record against Guardiola offers little hope for home fans. In 18 meetings, the Forest boss has never beaten the Catalan, suffering 16 defeats.
City’s Relentless Form
In their last six matches overall, City have won five and drawn one, scoring 16 goals while conceding just four. Key results include a 2-1 comeback victory at Real Madrid in the Champions League, a 3-0 win at Crystal Palace, and dominant displays against Sunderland and West Ham. Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki have complemented Haaland superbly, with the French playmaker registering four assists in his last 196 Premier League minutes.
Forest’s Home Struggles
At home this season, Forest average just 0.8 points per game compared to City’s 2.17 on the road. In their last six overall, Dyche’s men have two wins, one draw, and three defeats. Their defensive record of 25 goals conceded (1.56 per game) will be tested severely by City’s clinical attack.
Tactical Outlook
City’s high-possession approach (averaging 58%) and precise passing (88% accuracy) should dominate proceedings. Forest’s best hope lies in a compact defensive setup and quick counter-attacks through Callum Hudson-Odoi and Morgan Gibbs-White. However, with key absences disrupting their structure, containing Haaland appears unlikely.
Team News
Forest: Chris Wood and Matz Sels are injured. Willy Boly and Ibrahim Sangare are at AFCON. Ola Aina also misses out.
Man City: Rodri remains sidelined with a long-term knee injury. Oscar Bobb, Jeremy Doku, and John Stones are also unavailable.
Numbers to Watch
- City have won 5 of last 7 meetings, outscoring Forest 16-2
- Haaland has 19 goals in 17 Premier League games this season
- Dyche has 0 wins in 18 meetings against Guardiola (16 defeats)
- City have won all 5 matches against bottom-half sides this season
Forest vs Man City Prediction
The probability models give City a commanding 66% win chance, with Forest at just 13% and the draw at 21%. Goal distribution suggests a 47% likelihood of 2-3 total goals. Given City’s imperious form, Haaland’s goal-scoring prowess, and Forest’s injury-hit squad, an away victory looks inevitable. A 0-2 City win represents the most probable outcome, with Guardiola’s side keeping a clean sheet against a blunt Forest attack.
For the latest model comparisons, live odds tracking, and post-lineup updates, visit: https://polyinsights.info/
Where to Watch
The match is not televised live in the UK. US viewers can watch on NBC at 07:30 ET. International broadcast details available via livesoccertv.
