FC Cincinnati hosts Inter Miami at TQL Stadium on Sunday in a winner-take-all Eastern Conference Semifinal, with kickoff at 5:00 PM EST. The victor advances to face either Philadelphia Union or New York City FC in the conference final, while the loser’s season ends in this single-elimination showdown.
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami: Messi’s MLS Cup Nemesis Awaits
The second-seeded Cincinnati earned this home match by eliminating Columbus Crew 2-1 in their three-game series, while third-seeded Miami dispatched Nashville SC with a dominant 4-0 victory in their decisive Game 3. This sets up a rematch of July’s encounters where Cincinnati proved to be Miami’s kryptonite.
The historical timeline heavily favors Cincinnati with 3 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 Miami victory across their last six MLS meetings. Most notably, Cincinnati blanked Miami 3-0 at TQL Stadium on July 16 with Lionel Messi playing the full 90 minutes, followed by a 0-0 draw in Miami where Messi and Jordi Alba were suspended. Remarkably, Messi has never scored against Cincinnati in MLS play across three attempts.
Cincinnati’s last 6 overall shows 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 1.17 goals per game while conceding just 0.83. Their narrow-margin success defines them, with 16 of 20 regular season wins coming by a single goal, a pattern continuing in both playoff victories.
Miami matches that record with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 6 overall, but with vastly different stats: 2.83 goals scored per game against the same 0.83 conceded. Messi’s 5 goals and 3 assists in three playoff matches highlight their explosive attack.
The tactical battle centers on Cincinnati’s disciplined 3-5-2 formation against Miami’s possession-heavy approach that averages 57% of the ball. Cincinnati thrives through MVP candidate Evander, who posted 18 goals and 15 assists in the regular season, creating chances for striker Kevin Denkey. Miami channels everything through their superstar quartet, with this match serving as the final home playoff appearance for retiring legends Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets.
Cincinnati faces a significant defensive blow with center-back Matt Miazga ruled out due to a leg injury, weakening their typically stout back line. Miami’s absences include goalkeeper Oscar Ustari (leg), midfielder David Ruiz (hamstring), and defender Ryan Sailor (leg), with Rocco Rios Novo expected to start in goal.
Both teams will deploy contrasting formations with Cincinnati’s 3-5-2 facing Miami’s 4-3-3 or 4-4-2. Cincinnati’s projected lineup: Celentano; Murphy, Robinson, Keller; Yedlin, Bucha, Nwobodo, Evander, Orellano; Kelsy, Denkey. Miami’s projected eleven: Rios Novo; Weigandt, Aviles, Falcon, Alba; Redondo, Busquets, Cremaschi; Messi, Suarez, Taylor.
Numbers to Watch
Cincinnati’s 3-0 July victory at TQL Stadium against a full-strength Miami. Messi’s zero goals in MLS play against Cincinnati across three matches. Miami’s 2.83 goals per game in their last six versus Cincinnati’s one-goal margin specialty.
Weather conditions show clear skies with temperatures dropping from 54°F at kickoff into the 30s after sunset.
Where to watch
The match streams exclusively on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV at 5:00 PM EST Sunday.
