Burnley host Chelsea at Turf Moor on Saturday, November 22, in the Premier League’s Round 12 early kick-off. The game starts at 12:30 local time, with UK coverage on TNT Sports. It is a meeting of teams separated by both table position and recent pedigree at this venue.
Burnley vs Chelsea – team news, lineups
Chelsea arrive in the top three while Burnley sit in the bottom three heading into the weekend. That split frames the stakes clearly. Chelsea look to keep pace near the summit, and Burnley need points to climb out of danger.
Recent history between the clubs tilts blue. Chelsea are unbeaten in the last 11 meetings with Burnley in all competitions. Their last two league visits to Turf Moor brought four-goal wins, 4–1 in October 2023 and 4–0 in March 2022. The pattern suggests Chelsea have regularly found a way to open this fixture up once they score first.
The main on-pitch hinge is control versus conversion. Chelsea rank among the league’s highest for average possession this season at 59.4 percent, which points to sustained territory and the ability to pin opponents back. Burnley sit near the bottom of the possession table at 39 percent, so they are likely to defend deep and break when they can.
Shooting volume tracks the same way. Chelsea have produced 62 shots on target through 11 league matches, roughly 5.6 per game, a level that usually yields chances even if finishing is streaky. Burnley’s shot output has been more modest at about 8.2 efforts per match, which stresses the importance of set plays and transitions for the hosts.
Team notes are still evolving ahead of the final training sessions. Cole Palmer dealt with a groin problem in late September, with a return timeline of a few weeks, so his status will be one to check near kick-off. Burnley’s confirmed list is lean on publicly reported suspensions as of midweek, with official lineups expected one hour before start time.
Numbers to watch: Chelsea’s shots on target per game around 5.6 often translate into pressure spikes after the half-hour and around the hour mark. Burnley’s lower possession profile means set pieces could be their cleanest route to chances if they can draw fouls and corners around the Chelsea box.
Model probabilities lean toward the visitors. One public model gives Burnley 16 percent, the draw 21 percent, and Chelsea 63 percent. For Burnley to flip that script, they will likely need to keep the game level through the first hour and convert the first big chance that falls their way.
Forecast: Chelsea have the edge given their control metrics and the recent head-to-head. We say: Chelsea 2–0.
Where to watch: TNT Sports in the UK.
Notes: Premier League Round 12. Kick-off 12:30 at Turf Moor, Burnley.
